@Article{SilvaMareLeme:2024:AnExRa,
               author = "Silva, Rodrigo C{\'e}sar da and Marengo Orisini, Jos{\'e} 
                         Antonio and Lemes, Murilo Ruv",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Analysis of extreme rainfall and landslides in the metropolitan 
                         region of the Paraiba do Sul River Valley and North Coast of Sao 
                         Paulo, Brazil",
              journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
                 year = "2024",
               volume = "155",
                pages = "3927--3949",
                month = "Feb.",
             abstract = "The impact of hydrological and geological disasters has resulted 
                         in significant social, economic, and human losses, which added 
                         climate change impacts, and such events have become more frequent 
                         and intense. Therefore, our objective is to analyze the extreme 
                         rainfall (trends) in the Metropolitan Region of the Paraiba do Sul 
                         Valley and North Coast of Sao Paulo (RMVPLN). This analysis will 
                         support the most affected areas by landslides identification, 
                         which mainly impact roads and their population. In addition, 
                         evaluate the atmosphere conditions that supported these extreme 
                         rainfall events. To achieve our objectives, we have surveyed 
                         historical landslide data reported by the Brazilian government and 
                         information related by press and media. The precipitation 
                         evaluation used CHIRPS v.2 data and ETCCDI indices and the 
                         vertically integrated moisture flow and wind speed were calculated 
                         by ERA5 reanalysis. Our results show that the frequency and 
                         intensity of rainfall indicators such as seasonal PRCPTOT, R20mm, 
                         R30mm, and SDII have increased, particularly in the coastal and 
                         mountainous regions of Sao Paulo. This is due to positive 
                         anomalies of moisture transport and an increase of ocean winds 
                         influenced by the intense South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone 
                         (SASA). The region with the highest susceptibility to landslides 
                         triggered by extreme rainfall is the one that combines deforested 
                         areas, high slope topography, and excessive anthropic 
                         intervention. The presence of mountainous regions increases the 
                         risk of landslides, which can damage local infrastructure and 
                         expose the vulnerability of populations in these risk areas.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00704-024-04857-2",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04857-2",
                 issn = "0177-798X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "s00704-024-04857-2.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "17 maio 2024"
}